We went shopping today in Vegas and found a couple of plus three’s at the Mirage and the Hilton, so we’re buying Dallas. Still woulda bought at +2.5, but +3 always looks stronger. Speaking of strong, you really can’t fade the Cowboys. They have won four in a row, straight up and against the spread, and Tony Romo is actually oozing confidence and weapons. In that four game run, the ‘Boys outscored the opposition 99-31, Romo completed 66.7% of his passes, and spread 12 TD’s around to three running backs and five receivers. Having eight legit scoring options has really made life easy for Romo, and impossible for opposing defenses. The scary thing, the unknown, is Brett Favre. For the most part, he has been fabulous this season, but this agile, speedy and agressive Dallas defense could make him miserable.
After last year’s magical run to the Super Bowl, not many thought that Kurt Warner had another one in him, but after watching his performance against Green Bay last week, it looks like he does. Every throw, every handoff, every play call, seemed perfect. He was 29 of 33 for 379 yards and FIVE touchdowns. He had MORE TD’s than incompletions. Wow! Last season, he guided Arizona to four straight covers in the playoffs, and with last week’s W, he is now riding a 5-0 post-season spread streak. Nothing seems to rattle him, and New Orleans doesn’t have the defense to start. The Saints are 25th in total defense (357 yards per game) and 20th in points allowed (21.3 per). And coming in with three straight losses, an 0-5 spread run, and having covered only two of the last 10, makes this an easy play to the underdog. Actually, it makes this baby a BEST BET!
When Arizona found out before kickoff that its chance for a first round bye was history, and played, or should we say, did not play, accordingly. Kurt Warner played just two series, before Matt Leinart mopped up. It’ll be a different group of Cards this week, but after looking at their body of work this season, we just don’t get that warm fuzzy feeling about them that we had last year in the playoffs. And possibly going in without WR Anquan Boldin (sprained ankle), as well as injuries to CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and DE Calais Campbell, is bound to have an effect on ‘Zona. We ARE getting a warm fuzzy feeling about this Green Bay team that has the BEST defense in the NFC, and comes rolling into this rematch on a gorgeous 8-0 spread run. It ain’t gonna be a blowout like last week, but the Packers are gonna be the BEST BET of the weekend as they roll into the second round.
Here’s what we know for SURE. Wes Welker, Tom Brady’s lifeline, and the league leader with 123 receptions is gone. He will be replaced by Julian Edelman, a rookie who was a quarterback at Kent State. If Edelman beats me, I’ll rip up my betting slip with a smile. Here’s what we’re NOT sure about. Brady. He could have anywhere from one to three broken ribs, a possible broken finger, and some kind of shoulder tweak. Still, he’s Tom Brady, so we’ll keep a wary eye out for any late injury news, and possible line move. Baltimore comes in with a pretty healthy squad, including the return of OT Jared Gaither, a vital cog in the running game. With the dynamic duo of Ray Rice (1,339 yards rushing and 78 receptions) and Willis McGahee, Joe Flacco should be able to keep the Ravens close enough to win on a late field goal, or at least cover the spread.
It was quite a struggle handicapping this game. Coming in on a six game winning streak, and with a chance to get a first round bye, the Birds NEVER showed up. Wow, what an ugly non-effort. This week, the Eagles need to get back to that 6-0 stretch run team (before the loss). And it’s not as simple as saying Dallas can’t beat the Birds three times in one season. There have been 19 times where teams have met in the playoffs after one of those teams swept the season series. The team that swept has completed the hat trick 12 times. But the difference here is Andy Reid. In his seven trips to the playoffs, Reid has a glittering 7-0 mark in first round games, with an overall spread record of 6-2 in all road playoff games. One more stat to put into the mix. Since Andy took over, anytime the Eagles have scored seven or less, in the following game, they have covered a mind blowing 12 of 14. Not sure if the Birds find the upset, so I’m calling for the Cowboys to advance with a 26-24 victory.
Rex Ryan is turning out to be more colorful than his dad Buddy, saying that the Jets are the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Guess Rex hasn’t been to Vegas where the odds on the New Yorkers winning it all are 50-1, dead last. Much has been made of the Jets win at Indy and the bagel against Cincy, but these were two teams that were basically mailing it in. And can Carson Palmer do any worse than 1 for 11, ZERO yards, and 1 interception? Don’t think so. The Bengals played their starters, yes, but they KNEW the rematch with New York was a distinct possibility, so they were not gonna give away anything. The four crucial elements that put me on Cincinnati are:
1) home field advantage
2) Cedric Benson, who rushed for 1,251, is back
3) Mark Sanchez, the Jets rookie QB who has thrown for 12 TD’s and TWENTY INT’S
4) New York’s leading tackler, David Harris, has a sprained ankle, and WILL NOT be 100%.
The national title tilt is finally here, and we like these guys…
at +4 points over these guys…
And here’s why:
Everyone talks about Nick Saban in reverential terms, and he is a phenomenal football coach, with a national title, but Mack Brown ain’t no slouch. He has a title as well, and is working on a sweet little 5-0 bowl run. With two perfect teams, it’s tough to find an edge, but we believe that Colt McCoy is gonna be the difference maker in this game, and lead the Longhorns to the promised land.
However, I could be convinced to turn toward ‘Bama if this cheerleader calls me!!!
Everybody wants a piece of Vegas, and we're gonna bring you THE BEST of Vegas, EVERY DAY!!!
You want the Strip...got it!
You want the clubs...got it!
You want the food....got it!
You want the odds....got it!
And OF COURSE, you want PICTURES & VIDEO...got it!
